Sheryl and I have been at the vortex of where communications technologies and social media come together for quite some time now. But we're keenly interested in a number of other areas around the information age and economy. The Internet, and technology in general, has changed the face of business and society globally.

If we give just a moments thought to the evolution of mankind, we've gone through a number if different ages that I'll simplify and leave at a very high level -

• The Agricultural Age - We lived off the land. It doesn't matter whether mankind was living in small communities of hunter-gatherers, or tilling the land as serfs around a noble's castle, our society was based around agricultural activity.
• The Industrial Age - Machinery came into play and changed how we live and work. I'd argue that tne industrila age began with Gutenberg's mechanical printing press, but took many years to come to fruition. The industrial age gave us incandescent lighting (eliminating the need for daylight savings time) which changed the work day. We could now work around the clock. Machnery led to Henry Ford's assembly lines. Our lives were changed by machinery.
• The Pre-Information Age (I'd call this The Communications Age) - Overlapping with the Industrial Age, there were multiple evolutions progressing in parallel. In this area we saw radio and television explode as communications media. And we saw the rise of telecommunications. Voice calls at first, then long distance, but let's not overlook data, and the changes that came later.

The Information Age was never, for me, fully or even adequately defined. Some would say we've been in it for 30-40 years. Some would say we're entering it now. Maybe we're in the middle of it. It's a metaphysical question that I can't answer. But the impact of information technology and communications tools cannot be denied. We're at an evolutionary point in the information age timeline that puts us at the cusp of what I'll call The Knowledge Age for sake of argument.

I've struggled with this for a number of different reasons, not the least of which is the entire industry called Knowledge Management (KM) that's sprung up and pervaded so many business thought processes for the past couple of decades.

Here's an example of one simple KM theory that I call the DIKW Model-

I'm not going to elaborate in depth on the model here. I've done that before and will be happy to give a talk on the subject at any event. It's one you'll hear me speak passionately about as data, information and even knowledge are all attainable within the confines of information systems. Computers can do most of the work.

Wisdom on the other hand, is the human element. ASICs and ICs can't create wisdom. Humans do. Knowledge and wisdom are separated by very blurry lines and the distinction is subtle.

Knowledge can't be managed. It can be organized, compartmentalized, shared and absorbed. It can be processed.

In a recent series of conversations with friend Jerry Ash, currently the editor of Inside Knowledge Magazine, I found a set of views that mirror ours closely. We found a kindred spirit in Jerry.

Knowledge is about knowledge workers. US. People working in the information age who share knowledge about the information we've seen. One of the strongest knowledge management systems on the planet isn't a software application you can go by. It's free. Free. It's the people we know and interact with.

Twitter is one of the many social applications we use on a daily basis. It's our network. Our chat room. It's where many of our conversations take place. I recall my good friend Dan York's busness trip when he forgot his cowboy boots. You have to understand that Dan's boots are a signature note of his appearance anywhere. He posted a Twitter asking where he could buy some new boots, and within moments had the information - not from a programmatic system, but from people. People with information that came filtered with knowledge and a bit of wisdom about where the best selection and price might be had.

I've read many books that speak to how technology dehumanizes us. One that I like a great deal is Prometheus Wired: The Hope for Democracy in the Age of Network Technology by Darin Barney. But I don't agree with the premise.

The value of technology, the value in the Internet, the value in information isn't about hardware or software or databases. It's about connecting people. It's about the knowledge and wisdom we as people add to the information that crosses our radar screen in an endless flow 24 hours a day.

My knowledge management system is my knowledge network. My knowledge network is my social and business network. My knowledge library is influenced by people I know, respect and listen to. And that system is glued together with mobile and fixed, wired and wireless unified communications technologies. They're one and and same. Without one, the other doesn't hold much value.

Where's your knowledge management system? Are you living and working your daily life in the Knowledge Age? or are you still trapped in the quagmire of the Pre-Information Age chasing bits and bytes around the Internet?

Technorati Tags: knowledge management, KM, unified communications, networking, social media

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (0) |

I've written countless times in the past few months about how tightly coupled I see the emerging social media tools and unified communications. For me the two are interwoven and a vital part of the business technology toolset. I do not believe a business can thrive today without leveraging social medai tools as part of its operations strategy.

With our high profile involvement in social media, Sheryl and I make some of the most interesting friends around the world. One such connect is Matthew Fraser who used to be the editor in chief at the National Post. Sheryl wrote the post below about Matthew's new book Throwing Sheep in the Boardroom.

The book just came out in the UK, and won't be available in the US for a month or so, but it's definitely one to watch for. If you're struggling with making the connection between socail media, communications and business, this is one of the best resources you'll find. Watch for it and advance order your copy now.

Throwing Sheep in the Boardroom
Tomorrow a new book hits Amazon in the UK. Throwing Sheep in the Boardroom is a fascinating book about how social networking online is changing things, not only in our daily lives, but also in the work world. Matthew Fraser and Soumitra Dutta are the authors.

Co-author, Matthew Fraser, shared with me this morning that while this book is not available in the U.S. or Canada until after the first of the year, according to their publisher if you order through amazon.co.uk, for just a few dollars more it will be shipped immediately to you.

About the Book

Throwing Sheep in the Boardroom is the first comprehensive book written for a wide audience about the powerful trend that is reshaping your life: the Web 2.0 social networking revolution.

Social networking sites are a global phenomenon. Sites like MySpace and Facebook now boast hundreds of millions of members. Online social interaction has become an indispensible part of their daily lives. This book examines the powerful forces driving this social e-revolution. It also describes the equally powerful reactions to it, and makes predictions about its far-reaching consequences. As the book's subtitle states, Throwing Sheep in the Boardroom is about how the Web 2.0 revolution is transforming your life, your work, and your world.

Endorsements
" If you want to understand why Wikipedia is changing the world, this book is a must read "
- Jimmy Wales, founder of Wikipedia.

" This book is a must read for all - social activists, politicians or managers - who have an interest in understanding how our society is morphing"
- C.K.Prahalad, Ranked world's No.1 most influential business thinker and author of Competing for the Future.

Ken and I have talked endlessly about how we believe the world is being impacted with social trends and media. We live it. Hyperconnectivity is what we're all about.

Beyond all the hyperconnectivity, our social lives have been impacted, sure, but so have our business lives. Both of us have made a number of business connections through both facebook and linkedin. It's become a truly international world where connecting with someone in another country, on another continent is as likely as connecting with someone down the street. Our street just grew exponentially.

Next week we are going to San Francisco, purportedly for an early birthday present for me. It just so happens it coincides with several industry events and we will be connecting with many of our Global friends and colleagues. I'd say this is clear support of Matthew and Soumitra's idea of how our lives are being impacted by all the social networking.

I highly suggest you get a copy of this book. Our world is changing, and in my opinion we owe it to ourselves to understand as much as we can about what's going on.

Technorati Tags: Throwing Sheep in the Boardroom, Matthew Fraser, Soumitra Dutta, Jimmy Wales, C.K. Prahalad

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (0) |

I've been reading so much conversation the past couple of weeks about the death of Web 2.0 (Arrington) or not (Boyd). Michael and Stowe aren't the only ones talking about it. The buzz is everywhere. Just this morning on Squawkbox, the failures of Jangl, TalkPlus were part of the conversation.

Make no mistake. Times are tough. Venture capitalists aren't throwing money away. They aren't looking for high burn rates. There's a nice perspective on Mashable (Recession is the Mother of Tech Invention). It isn't just the tech sector, VoIP or unified communications. Check out the equities market in general (thanks Don).



Times are tough everywhere. The Fed has been bailing people out, but in the tech sector, bailout is achieved by death and destruction. The last round we called the burst of the bubble, and that phrase has been kicked to death already as times have gotten tougher. But I don't htink this is all as bad as many folks are saying. Colleague John Furrier wrote Gloom in Ventureland - Try Gloom Period - Innovation Happens Now in response to a Wall Street Journal piece. I agree with John that the WSJ seems to be calling for a dogpile on the Silicon Valley. Then again, remember we don't call it the Silly Valley for nothing. There's been plenty of silliness and massive funding of some of the most absurd ideas of all time centered there. And let's not forget that in years past, the Silly Valley was the spawn of books like Po Bronson's Nudist on the Night Shift. The Silicon Valley does not today, nor has it ever, represent the reality of competitive free-market business.

SV is a microcosm of a variation of what I'd call cronyism run rampant. It's built on rumor and innuendo - smoke and mirrors - card tricks. Why is it surprising that when it comes time to actually build a sustainable business, some of those companies flounder and sink into the abyss?

What does this mean for the rest of us? It means we tighten our belts, make wise business decisions and investments, and we look at where the value is. Wild speculation doesn't do any good in "fat" times. There's just a more painful price to pay when the lean times come.

Is the industry in trouble? Not hardly. Whether you call it telecommunications, voice services, VoIP or unified communications, our sector of technology is going strong. And companies like IBM, Cisco and Microsoft continue to invest resources - R&D, marketing, sales and engineering - in building their sustainable and profitable business lines. These aren't companies that are likely to play short-sighted games for the sake of quick return.

We're in the middle of the ebb and flow of one of the largest industries ever assembled. In ebb and flow, there are going to be bubbles. There are going to be highs and lows. But the general level of the water, if you look at the horizon rather than at your feet, doesn't vary that much.

Voice 2.0 isn't dead because while we all talked about it, it was never really alive. It was an evolutionary path we've been following. I don't believe we're done following it. We're simply in a time when fiscal responsibility, profitability and smart business decisions are necessary survival skills.

I think we're going to see a number of companies, particularly small innovators, stumble and fall. For many, their cash burn rate has never been able to keep up with the investment or seed money in the first place. I expect I have some friends and colleagues in this boat. I'm sorry to see them struggle, but it's how we learn. Some acquisitions will still happen, but they'll either be very strategic, or a company with deep enough pockets may leverage a "pennies on the dollar" buyout with some measured speculation.

We've seen some acquisitions in the past year or two that I thought were pure fantasy. So far, those have proven to be non-actionable by the acquirer, so I'm sticking to that. Some money was wasted and some people will pay the price for poor judgment. I don't think we'll see any wild, speculative purchases in the near term. We're going to see people doing smart things unless they slip.

See also Reality Check: Surviving Is Always Hard for Startups.

As part of all this conversation, talk of the value of social media often seems to come into play too. In general, social media is simply another evolution of the web. Remember when people didn't have an email address on their business card? Or a web site? Social media is integrating itself into our culture of business in much the same way. And in lean times, it provides not just a source for commiseration, but a place to catch ideas and see how others are doing too. The social media tools we've come to embrace play a vital role in surviving the ebb and flow of industry trends. They're our lifeline, and something to leverage to our best power. If you aren't using them, you're falling behind.

Falling behind when times get lean and tight isn't a desirable position to find yourself in.

Now's time to engage. Get into the conversation. Publish papers that represent your good business judgment. Demonstrate your acumen by how you present your story. Be smart. Work smart.

Sheryl and I have our sights set not to survive, but to thrive. I think that's a good mindset for everyone in every business.

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (0) |

I'm very interested in the evolution of what we're now calling cloud-based computing. When I track my own evolution through networking technologies, with a slant toward telecommunications, I can't help but make a strong comparison to hosted services. We've seen  hosted Centrex evolve to hosted VoIP solutions. Now we're seeing the beginnings of hosted enterprise business applications moving more and more toward Communications Enhanced Business Processes (CEBP). I'd argue Salesforce.com is a strong example of that.

With phenomenal growth of Amazon's S3 services and Google's massive distributed computing engine, cloud-based computing services are starting to take on new meaning again. Beyond those two powerhouses, everywhere we turn we hear people talking about moving data into the cloud -

Citrix and VMware Want to Turn Data Centers Into Clouds
As the VMworld conference kicks off in Las Vegas, expect to see virtualization try to hook its star to cloud computing much like a tired stripper might lure a lucky gambler into marriage. Since virtualized servers act as the basic building blocks of cloud computing -- and hypervisors are moving towards free -- the move on the part of virtualization vendors to push beyond the marketing message of server consolidation into providing services to enable the cloud is both a logical and necessary one.
[Read full post]

Clearly virtualization has been a foundation technology for the growth in cloud-based computing. Just as VoIP lowered the barrier to entry for voice services providers, virtualization services allow what was once the simple colocation datacenter to become a hosting site for enterprise business network services.

Here's more on the topic from my colleague Greg Shields over on the Realtime Windows Server Community.

News from VMworld
I'm making a mad six-hour dash to VMworld and back today. I'll be spendingmost of my time walking the expo to take a look at what technologies are worth looking at. My first fly-in-and-then-back-out conferenceexperience, its a long day but only a short time to gather as muchinformation as possible.

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (1) |

In the past few days, I've been involved in a number of conversations about the phrase unified communications and what it means.

A couple of days ago, Art Rosenberg posted What Will Business People Call "UC?". Here's an excerpt -

Everyone may agree that "UC" and IP Telephony will be gradually swallowing up traditional voice telephone communications in both the business and consumer markets, but it has not exactly become a useful term for end users, nor yet created any viral demand from end users. There are practical reasons why this is so, including:

· UC technologies are still evolving and not as a single "package,"

· Communication functions are becoming more software based and device-independent, and therefore evolving differently from different technology providers,

· New multimodal devices are offering a variety of different form factors for UC capabilities and flexible user interfaces (visual, speech) through 3G mobile "smart-phones (e.g., Apple iPhones), desktop PC "softphones" and IP screenphones,

· New interoperability standards for end-to-end network contacts are still being defined, especially for person-to-person, real-time presence and availability ("federation"),

· Technology staffs are getting reeducated and consolidating their responsibilities for supporting IP telephony and data applications.

[Read Art's full post]

As always, Rosenberg makes some salient points that cut through the marketing babble and hype that's surrounded UC for far too long. Unified communications is simply not a useful term for end users and customers. It hasn't created viral demand for one simple reason - nobody really knows what the heck it is. Unified communications simply is not a product that you can write a check for.

Solution providers selling unified communications would do themselves and their customers a great service if they'd simply step away from the buzzwords and ask one question - What problem are you trying to solve?

Too often we get caught up in the technology and overlook the basics of business. Customers who implement technology solutions are most often not in the technology business. Their core business lies elsewhere - health care, finance, insurance, real estate, manufacturing, etc.

Having spent over thirty years in the technology sector I've seen cycles of business come and go. Selling technology has always been the single most unsuccessful approach, yet every few years the industry shifts into selling buzzwords and technology stuff. It's neat. It's cool. It has so much potential.

Too often the industry leads customers on with a "think of all you can do" sales pitch. If I'm a customer, I don't want to think about that. I'm too busy doing. I'd rather you show me that you know my business and know my industry. I want you to show me how I can rock the world in ways I haven't thought of.

That puts some responsibility on you, Mr. Vendor.

• You have to work hard to know me and my business. You have to study the market sector I'm in and know how we compete.
• You have to know who my competitors are. You have to know what strategies work and don't work in our fight to be on top.
• You have to be creative, but do it on your own time. Don't use me as an experiment. If we've been working together for a long time and I trust you, I might be willing to try some new things, but if you're a vendor I've never worked with, don't expect me to be your guinea pig. To quote Jack Nicholson in As Good as It Gets, "Go sell crazy someplace else. We're all stocked up here."
  

Customers don't want to hear unified communications or fixed mobile convergence or realtime collaboration phrases. It isn't time to hype buzzwords. The buzzword hype of unified communications is past. It's time to deliver real business value that solves problems and meets customer needs. Tangible, measurable solutions.

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (2) |

I've been slowly working up to a podcast briefing with the folks at Strata8 Networks. Tomorrow I'll be attending this seminar at the Hyatt in Bellevue, WA to get a little more insight. The rise in wireless technologies certainly fuels the expansion of unified communications as we watch all network services converge into a ubiquitous "service in the cloud" of the future.

I'm sure we'll be hearing more about Strata8 Networks in the future. And if you're at the seminar, please say hi.

REMINDER: YOUR FREE LUNCH SEMINAR IS TOMORROW! APRIL 24TH, 11:30AM-1:00PM, BELLEVUE HYATT. Thank you for registering for the Controlling Enterprise Wireless Expenditures lunch seminar, sponsored by Strata8 Networks. In this information-packed 90-minute lunch seminar, you'll hear industry experts explain the current paradigm in enterprise cellular purchasing, usage and spending. In addition, you'll learn how forward thinking enterprises are combatting the growing problem of "Wireless Creep", and in the process reducing their total communications costs by as much as 15%-25%. Every attendee will receive a FREE copy of Frost & Sullivan's latest research titled "Management of Costs for Enterprise Wireless". In addition, all attendees will be entered into a drawing for a FREE Apple iPod Touch to be given away at the end of the session (must be present to win). Directions to the Hyatt Regency in Bellevue can be found here. Look for signs in the Hyatt lobby stating: "Strata8 Wireless Expenditures Lunch Seminar". If you have questions or would like to bring a friend or colleague, please contact Mark Bloom, via email or by phone: 206-210-1036.

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (0) |

Unified communications isn't all about voice. It isn't even all about phones. The web, and its evolution come into play as a huge part of how we integrate all communications.

There's a news story this morning that's been getting a lot of buzz and discussion.

Is the Mobile Web Dead? Some Mobile Entrepreneurs Say Yes

Written by Marshall Kirkpatrick / April 14, 2008 5:29 PM

Former Yahoo! Mobile evangelist turned startup entrepreneur Russell Beattie announced today that he's calling it quits for his company Mowser because the market for mobile browsing is taking a fast turn for the worse. "The mobile traffic just isn't there," Beattie says, "It's not there now, and it won't be."

Beattie's announcement comes just two months after mobile blogger and consultant Michael Mace wrote a much discussed post titled Mobile Applications, RIP.

"The business of making native apps for mobile devices is dying, crushed by a fragmented market and restrictive business practices," Mace wrote.

[Read full post]

I was involved in conference call discussing this topinc this morning and found my own theory spilling out in a pretty ad hoc mode as I reacted to some of the conversation. Here are some of the thoughts that spilled out.

First, I don't think the Mobile Web was ever a viable concept. It was a window of opportunity that allowed carriers and providers a brief opportunity to give the illusion of real innovation by packaging browser content slightly differently.

The mobile web is dead because the web is mobile. Today people uses iPhones, Blackberries, smartphones, gaming consoles, and all manner of other devices to access the web.

Some folks on the call described the the iPhone browser as disruptive and a complete change to the browsing experience. I disagree. I expressed my view that the browser itself is rapidly dying.

With the rise in what we call cloud computing, and the increasing reliance on the browser to access web applications, I actually argued that Web 2.0 has been almost entirely about cosmetics. Web 2.0 sites get a new look, round the edges on the boxes, and present a facelift. But the underlying technology and capability certainly didn't change an evolutionary generation.

Web 2.0 has all been a cosmetic facelift illusion. And the browser is badly in need of a paradigm shift. (Yes I took a beating for using that phrase0.

I'd argue that the browser, still based on the old tired original browser interface, is old, tired, and dying. It's as obsolete as the ten-digit dial pad on a telephone. These are two interfaces, the two primary interfaces, into the unified communications world. We're using old user interfaces to do new things.

I think the next generation web (WebNG for the sake of argument), will bring new tools, new interfaces, new ways of itneracting with cloud computing resources. Yes, a paradigm shift in user behavior and interaction.

What form will that take? Voice recognition? Eye movement? A new way of using gestures to interact with devices? Perhaps some combination.

What do you think? Leave your thoughts in comments.

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (0) |

This is a good time to send out a reminder that there's more to the Realtime Unified Communications Community that just this blog. If you're reading in an RSS reader, you're missing links to other goodies. Our Digital Library there are a number of links to other content, some written by men, and some by other authors. We're always working toward adding more content too.

Coming soon you'll see a series of three papers around Fixed Mobile Convergence. For March I'll be collaborating with my partner on a series of three articles on video - for personal use, mobile use and business use.,

Realtime Essentials Series
Download this Essentials Series Now!		The Essentials Series: Communications Enabled Business Author: Ken Camp Communications-Enabled Business Processes (CEBP) is an important new innovation in the automation of human communications within the context of business applications. CEBP is defined as tightly integrating communications technologies with business processes and applications to enable concurrent or consecutive communication among customers, suppliers and employees. The Essentials Series: Communications Enabled Business illustrates the benefits of enabling business processes with communications capabilities (CEBP) as well as techniques, best practices, administration/management tools, third party utilities and example scenarios. Articles include: Convergence Sets the Stage for Communications Enabled Business Processes (CEBP) Communications Enabled Business Processes (CEBP) in the Enterprise Business Environment Communications Enabled Business Processes (CEBP) for Service and Solution Providers

Technorati Tags: Realtime Essentials Series

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (2) |

I've known about the upcoming unveiling for quite some time, but was asked to not to spill the beans early

Jaduka's engineers created Jaduka Labs - an interactive showcase of useful applications and widgets - to demonstrate the power and clarity of Jaduka's voice communication technology.

Every application in the Labs was developed using Jaduka's SOAP-based Web Services API - the same user-friendly API made available to IT application developers and third-party solutions providers to create voice mash-ups or effective communications-enabled business processes.

Register Now for a free Jaduka Labs account to use the apps and to stay informed about new concepts.

Later this week I'll be talking with the some of the Jaduka team (Trevor, Jack and Bill - it will be great to catch up with them) on a podcast briefing about this news. In the meantime, I want to share a couple of samples of applications created with the Jaduka API. These are very consumer oriented and early examples built to show the power of this amazing tool.

jaduka TV

With all the hype and talk surrounding Internet television and video tools, this one leaped out at me. Here's a simple way to create your own online debates.

dukaDial


Here's a simple application for calling any North American phone number from a web interface. It's another demonstration of just how powerful this toolkit can be.

Jaduka is one of those companies I've worked with who really understand the fine points of the broad field of communications. What I found most striking over the past year or so working together is how completely they really understand the importance of what we're now calling Communications Enhanced Business Process, or CEBP. They get it to the level that they're producing tools to make it simpler for everyone. When it comes to unifying communications, Jadulka is very high on my list as a thought leader and innovator. Pay attention to these guys!

Please watch for our upcoming podcast and check out Jaduka


Technorati Tags: Jaduka, Jaduka Labs, Communications Enhanced Business Process, CEBP, unified communications

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (0) |

As we head into 2008, there are several aspects of the unified communications evolution that I think are going to be key areas to watch - my personal watch list. This time of year, we all share our predictions and the things we think are going to be hot in the coming year, so I'm going to share a few of mine.

Mobility
Mobile solutions are going to be one of the hottest communications areas in the industry in 2008. This year we saw the iPhone and a handful of advanced handsets from Nokia, notably the N series. Together, these new generation handhelds have set the bar higher for mobile phones. They have more memory, faster processes and enhanced functionality. WiFi is rapidly becoming the norm too.

What was once a mobile telephone has become a far more robust Internet device. Web browsing, text messaging, playing audio and video media files have become routine features that users expect in a mobile device. Beyond that, synchronization is quickly becoming more important. Google's recent enhancement to allow tighter sync between Google Calendar and Blackberry. That's a step ahead. Gmail has already been pretty accessible from a number of handhelds. Those advances will continue, although I don't really expect we'll see an exponential leap from Google - just continued advances over time.

RIM will become a larger force in 2008. Nokia dominates the mobile handset market, but the truth is that Nokia's strength is in consumer devices. The highly acclaimed N series I've had the pleasure of testing (N73, N93, N80i, N95 and N81) are fabulous, feature rich handhelds, yet they all fall short of being a useful enterprise business phone. I haven't had access to a Nokia E61 or E62 that have full QWERTY keyboard, but Nokia's lack of depth in competing with RIM in the business market is pretty clear.

RIM's new WiFi-enabled handset is rumored, but they've been partnering and working with a lot of other companies. RIM dominates the business market and has become the de facto standard. Windows Mobile fell dormant and isn't really a factor in the market today. I've spoken to friends at a couple of the wireless carriers. Windows Mobile is also plagued by flawed hardware that runs the highest customer return rates of any. The Motorola Q, for example, has proven a huge disappointment.

I expect to see RIM start eating into Nokia's consumer customer base in 2008. For many of us, carrying both a work and personal cell phone has become something of a pain. It might seem trendy to carry multiple phones. It might make some people feel important. Ego aside, it's another device to keep charged, another gadget to worry about losing, and a general hassle. Nokia may have to race to catch RIM in finding the right mix of business and personal use.

The iPhone, or iPod Touch are neither one at a point they're viewed as suitable business devices. They play directly to a different market. And while that market will continue to thrive, it's only a piece of the mobile handset market.

VoIP
I mentioned mobility before VoIP for a reason. Not long ago I wrote a couple of posts describing VoIP as plumbing. I think the key for me in the coming year is that VoIP for VoIP's sake will fall off the radar. VoIP is simply another transport mechanism for something more important - voice services. While voice services will rise in importance and evolve, VoIP as a technology has reached the level of what would typically be called a sustaining technology. It's no longer a disruptor in the voice services industry. It's simply another facet of the architecture.

There are areas within VoIP that will continue to make huge advances. Session Border Controllers (SBCs) will become more important than ever. SIP peering will continue to rise and more and more enterprise establish a SIP-connected presence with voice services. Companies like Covergence and Acme Packet will continue to lead the advances in these areas. Edge control of voice services will migrate to IP at a steady pace.

Mobile VoIP will continue to rise, as more handsets are WiFi-enabled. I don't think most users will care. The quad-band handset will be the norm before the end of 2008, with many handsets providing some integrated support for some VoIP-based voice service. What users will want, what they'll really buy, isn't a technology, but seamless integration that provides the most functionality for the lowest cost. Ease of use, especially in accessing VoIP for less expensive services, will be a market driver that the solution providers will finally understand. We'll see some companies really leverage that.

Video
In 2007 we saw Skype move up to high resolution video for a limited set of users. That will expand rapidly in 2008. We also saw SightSpeed evolve beyond the consumer to embrace business use. Even Gizmo began to embrace video in a new way. I expect to see video services couple more tightly with voice services in 2008. Whether the industry settles on VVoIP or V2oIP as the acronym of choice still remains to be seen, but we'll see video rise a couple of levels in importance. I don't think we'll see any exponential innovations in video, but several incremental improvements. I think we'll see some of those start to be announced at CES in a couple of weeks.

Software Oriented Architecture (SOA) & Software as a Service (SaaS)
I struggle with these terms, but not with what they embody. They've been used, and misused, by a number of companies grappling with how to describe unified communications.  I expect the industry will slowly leave both terms behind, but there are a couple of solution providers who will hang onto them for years. I think Forrester's terminology of Communications-Enabled Business Processes (CEBP) will become the most widely adpoted view. Here's how Forrester defines CEPBs -

...business processes and applications tightly integrated with unified communications technologies to enable concurrent or consecutive communications among customers, suppliers, and employees within the context of business transactions.

That's a mouthful really. It's something I'll be writing more about soon. I'm already working on a series of papers on the topic. CEPB will be the convergence point that really integrates communications tools with business processes, and Forrester touched on several vital business processes -

• Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)
• Customer Relationship Management(CRM)
• Supply Chain Management (SCM)
• Sales Force Automation (SFA)
• Human Resources Management (HRM)

I expect to see huge advances in this evolution of convergence in the year ahead.

I also expect to see some disappointments. I'm not overly optimistic today about the innovation we'll see from major players like Cisco and Microsoft in the unified communications area next year. I'm confident they'll make noise. They're likely to bombard us with new words that mean old things. What I don't see coming from them today is real innovation. Real innovation comes from aggressive, small, entrepreneurial companies.

Social Media & Social Networking
In 2007 social tools (Facebook, LinkedIN, Plaxo, Jaiku, Twitter, etc.) leaped into high visibility, yet none are really new technologies this year. They've been with us for a while. This year they achieved some critical mass, but it's really just a start. I don't even see it as an explosive start.

Marketing and PR organizations still see these tools through a distorted lens. They're still looking for a way to deliver a message, but their universe is changing. Rather than broadcasting a message (spoon feeding marketing to a demographic audience), they're struggling with the concept of participating in a larger conversation in a new way. I think in 2008 we'll see more of these groups start to make a fundamental change in how they operate and converse with the world at large.

I think the social media and social networking are going to be explosive in 2008. So much so that my life and business partner Sheryl and I launched Stardust Global Ventures recently, with a focus on mobility and social tools. We think those are the two most exciting areas within the industry.

2008 is shaping up to be an exciting year with lots of real innovation from many companies. The small innovators are still going to be the ones to watch. They'll be where the really hot action is. They always are.



Technorati Tags: unified communications, mobility, VoIP, video, business integration, convergence

Posted by Ken Camp | Permalink | Comments (1) |