It's nearly the end of another year , and that means all of us who write online will being sharing our year in review thoughts. I'm going to take a slightly different approach and just talk a bit about the state of the unified communications industry as a whole. In this post I'll just begin the conversation, and I'll be writing about some of these in a bit more detail over the next two or three weeks as we head into the holiday madness and the new year.
First, and important to me, is identifying what the unified communications industry really is. It's a broad term that's never been well-defined. Yet used by pretty much every vendor in the space. To me, unified communications has become something of an overworn phrase, because it's more simply just communications across every technology and avenue we have available. If we look at that segment we call unifide3d communications, here's what it includes for me:
- Voice services of all kinds. It doesn't matter whether it's legacy PSTN voice using TDM, or some new-fangled VoIP solution. They're just foundation architecture. The protocols and bits don't excite me frankly. The services do.
- Video of every kind. It doesn't matter whether it's how IP-based video services are killing the old-world broadcast media (and they are ringing the death toll for the old media), collaboration teleconferencing, or simple personal video calling. Video is one of the most exciting and vibrant areas in the entire communications industry.
- Mobility and casual computing are the areas where I see the greatest potential for advances. More on this below.
- Social media isn't simply a web site. It isn't networks. It's how we as humans communicate. I think social media encompasses a broader set of tools that we typically give credence. Naturally there are the social networks, but I think IM and text messaging fall into the social media side of unified communications. I maintain that unified communications and social media coexist in a symbiotic relationship that overlaps even more tightly coupled than the Internet and PSTN are joined. I don't believe one can exist and thrive without the other.
- Connectivity is key. I remember "back in the day" when connectivity was carriers talking about ATM and how efficient a 53 byte cell was going to be at carrying multimedia. What a load of poppycock that was. It isn't about the bits and protocols, it's about the services. Wireless broadband, WiFi and WiMAX services are going to remain crucial. In the old world of the legacy telecommuncations carriers (remember the dinosaurs), the last mile was the all-important piece. While it's till important, I don't think a mile is the right measure any longer. I'd say it's the last hop that matters. That hop can take any technology, but the wireless last hop is where we're going to see growth and energy. Sure enterprise business is going to be tied to a wired technology for the campus setting, but wireless is absolutely the king of connectivity technology moving foward.
There are great things happening in all these areas. There are also some pretty absurd and stupid things happening as well. This is that perfect time of year to give a nod of appreciation to some of the good things, and rant about some of the stupid things we've seen this year.
High on the list of dismal actions is the whole Yahoo debacle. I recall Stuart Henshall and I talking about how foolhardy Jerry Yang's 100 Days of Quiet Thought about Yahoo was. I felt like Jerry rang a bell that said he was going to try to kill Yahoo, and in many ways he did just that. Yang's gone now, and should be headed for richly deserved obscurity. Doubtless with a pocekt full of money for setting Yahoo back five years through inaction and foolhardy leadership. I expect to see Yahoo dissected and continuing to crumble as pieces get sold off. A sorry fate for a company that once led the way to the future.
There's a trend I've been watching recently that seems to be on the rise. A trend and a variation; both are troubling. I've seen a number of small innovators, people I sometimes know, but most often people who truly are innovators doing some very nice work. Yet, they're releasing solutions that simply don't work. They're unleashing crap in the name of early release beta products. To further compound the problem, I've been noticing a high degree of what sales people call
smoke and mirrors in the early advertising and documentation of a growing number of products.
Troubling to me because at a high level, I see a growing number of creative innovators with tremendous potential opertaing under what I think is a flawed business plan. I see what appears to be a plan of taking an idea or concept and half baking it into something that can be hyed to that mass of free beta testers known as the Internet in hopes that they'll either catch some good buzz, or get enough ideas to turn the half-baked idea into a product. I don't know whether it's a bad thing or a good thing. Clearly end users get lots of options, but is the value in return for those solutions that never materialize worth the investment? I don't think about it often, but I when I do I frequently think it is not.
There are highlights too. In 2008 we saw video services begin to really make progress toward critical mass for widespread adoption. Skype High Density Video has changed the way people use Skype. The rise in video calls there is tremendous. SightSpeed finally got some well deserved recognition through a major partnership with Dell followed by Logitech's acquisition for a nice $30M. And most recently we've seen what Sheryl and I think is a pretty successful luanch beginning for Vidtel. I think they're going to be very successful and worth watching.
That's enough for now. This wasn't intended to be a comprehensive post, but rather a framework for things to write and think about in the next few weeks as we approach the end of 2008. There are things coming I can't quite share just yet, but every year brings new challenges and suprises. 2009 is no different, with lots on the horizon.
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2008 in review