As we head into 2008, there are several aspects of the unified communications evolution that I think are going to be key areas to watch - my personal watch list. This time of year, we all share our predictions and the things we think are going to be hot in the coming year, so I'm going to share a few of mine.

Mobility
Mobile solutions are going to be one of the hottest communications areas in the industry in 2008. This year we saw the iPhone and a handful of advanced handsets from Nokia, notably the N series. Together, these new generation handhelds have set the bar higher for mobile phones. They have more memory, faster processes and enhanced functionality. WiFi is rapidly becoming the norm too.

What was once a mobile telephone has become a far more robust Internet device. Web browsing, text messaging, playing audio and video media files have become routine features that users expect in a mobile device. Beyond that, synchronization is quickly becoming more important. Google's recent enhancement to allow tighter sync between Google Calendar and Blackberry. That's a step ahead. Gmail has already been pretty accessible from a number of handhelds. Those advances will continue, although I don't really expect we'll see an exponential leap from Google - just continued advances over time.

RIM will become a larger force in 2008. Nokia dominates the mobile handset market, but the truth is that Nokia's strength is in consumer devices. The highly acclaimed N series I've had the pleasure of testing (N73, N93, N80i, N95 and N81) are fabulous, feature rich handhelds, yet they all fall short of being a useful enterprise business phone. I haven't had access to a Nokia E61 or E62 that have full QWERTY keyboard, but Nokia's lack of depth in competing with RIM in the business market is pretty clear.

RIM's new WiFi-enabled handset is rumored, but they've been partnering and working with a lot of other companies. RIM dominates the business market and has become the de facto standard. Windows Mobile fell dormant and isn't really a factor in the market today. I've spoken to friends at a couple of the wireless carriers. Windows Mobile is also plagued by flawed hardware that runs the highest customer return rates of any. The Motorola Q, for example, has proven a huge disappointment.

I expect to see RIM start eating into Nokia's consumer customer base in 2008. For many of us, carrying both a work and personal cell phone has become something of a pain. It might seem trendy to carry multiple phones. It might make some people feel important. Ego aside, it's another device to keep charged, another gadget to worry about losing, and a general hassle. Nokia may have to race to catch RIM in finding the right mix of business and personal use.

The iPhone, or iPod Touch are neither one at a point they're viewed as suitable business devices. They play directly to a different market. And while that market will continue to thrive, it's only a piece of the mobile handset market.

VoIP
I mentioned mobility before VoIP for a reason. Not long ago I wrote a couple of posts describing VoIP as plumbing. I think the key for me in the coming year is that VoIP for VoIP's sake will fall off the radar. VoIP is simply another transport mechanism for something more important - voice services. While voice services will rise in importance and evolve, VoIP as a technology has reached the level of what would typically be called a sustaining technology. It's no longer a disruptor in the voice services industry. It's simply another facet of the architecture.

There are areas within VoIP that will continue to make huge advances. Session Border Controllers (SBCs) will become more important than ever. SIP peering will continue to rise and more and more enterprise establish a SIP-connected presence with voice services. Companies like Covergence and Acme Packet will continue to lead the advances in these areas. Edge control of voice services will migrate to IP at a steady pace.

Mobile VoIP will continue to rise, as more handsets are WiFi-enabled. I don't think most users will care. The quad-band handset will be the norm before the end of 2008, with many handsets providing some integrated support for some VoIP-based voice service. What users will want, what they'll really buy, isn't a technology, but seamless integration that provides the most functionality for the lowest cost. Ease of use, especially in accessing VoIP for less expensive services, will be a market driver that the solution providers will finally understand. We'll see some companies really leverage that.

Video
In 2007 we saw Skype move up to high resolution video for a limited set of users. That will expand rapidly in 2008. We also saw SightSpeed evolve beyond the consumer to embrace business use. Even Gizmo began to embrace video in a new way. I expect to see video services couple more tightly with voice services in 2008. Whether the industry settles on VVoIP or V2oIP as the acronym of choice still remains to be seen, but we'll see video rise a couple of levels in importance. I don't think we'll see any exponential innovations in video, but several incremental improvements. I think we'll see some of those start to be announced at CES in a couple of weeks.

Software Oriented Architecture (SOA) & Software as a Service (SaaS)
I struggle with these terms, but not with what they embody. They've been used, and misused, by a number of companies grappling with how to describe unified communications.  I expect the industry will slowly leave both terms behind, but there are a couple of solution providers who will hang onto them for years. I think Forrester's terminology of Communications-Enabled Business Processes (CEBP) will become the most widely adpoted view. Here's how Forrester defines CEPBs -

...business processes and applications tightly integrated with unified communications technologies to enable concurrent or consecutive communications among customers, suppliers, and employees within the context of business transactions.

That's a mouthful really. It's something I'll be writing more about soon. I'm already working on a series of papers on the topic. CEPB will be the convergence point that really integrates communications tools with business processes, and Forrester touched on several vital business processes -

• Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)
• Customer Relationship Management(CRM)
• Supply Chain Management (SCM)
• Sales Force Automation (SFA)
• Human Resources Management (HRM)

I expect to see huge advances in this evolution of convergence in the year ahead.

I also expect to see some disappointments. I'm not overly optimistic today about the innovation we'll see from major players like Cisco and Microsoft in the unified communications area next year. I'm confident they'll make noise. They're likely to bombard us with new words that mean old things. What I don't see coming from them today is real innovation. Real innovation comes from aggressive, small, entrepreneurial companies.

Social Media & Social Networking
In 2007 social tools (Facebook, LinkedIN, Plaxo, Jaiku, Twitter, etc.) leaped into high visibility, yet none are really new technologies this year. They've been with us for a while. This year they achieved some critical mass, but it's really just a start. I don't even see it as an explosive start.

Marketing and PR organizations still see these tools through a distorted lens. They're still looking for a way to deliver a message, but their universe is changing. Rather than broadcasting a message (spoon feeding marketing to a demographic audience), they're struggling with the concept of participating in a larger conversation in a new way. I think in 2008 we'll see more of these groups start to make a fundamental change in how they operate and converse with the world at large.

I think the social media and social networking are going to be explosive in 2008. So much so that my life and business partner Sheryl and I launched Stardust Global Ventures recently, with a focus on mobility and social tools. We think those are the two most exciting areas within the industry.

2008 is shaping up to be an exciting year with lots of real innovation from many companies. The small innovators are still going to be the ones to watch. They'll be where the really hot action is. They always are.



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